Every thesis we publish has a section headed “What would make it wrong”. It is the part people skip and the part we spend the longest on. Here is why it is there, and how to read it.
A thesis is a bet with an exit
Anyone can write a convincing case for a theme that is already working. The case for artificial-intelligence infrastructure in 2026 writes itself; so did the case for telecoms capacity in 1999. What separates an investment thesis from a story is that it names, in advance, the evidence that would end it. Without that, the only thing that ever ends a position is a loss large enough to force the question, which is the most expensive way to find out.
What goes in the section
We try to write three kinds of thing. First, a change in the underlying economics: the return on the spending stops showing up at the companies doing the spending, or supply catches demand and pricing power moves to the buyer. Second, a change in the rules: a regulator closes the door the thesis walks through. Third, a change in the facts we assumed: a technology shift that cuts the need for what we own, or an incumbent matching the advantage we thought was unmatched. Each is written as something observable, so that in a year we can say whether it has happened rather than argue about whether it is happening.
How it is used
At each quarterly review the thesis is read against the evidence. If none of the conditions has been met, the position is held at its policy weight regardless of whether the price went up or down that quarter. If one has, the thesis is marked closed and the position is exited on the schedule the policy sets. Price alone is never the trigger, in either direction. A theme that has doubled is not held because it doubled, and a theme that has halved is not sold because it halved. That is the entire point of writing the conditions down beforehand.
Why we publish it
Because it is the only honest way to let you hold us to our own standard. A firm that publishes only its wins is telling you about its marketing. A firm that publishes what it would take to change its mind is telling you how it thinks. When one of our theses is closed, the note will say so, and say which condition was met.
The current theses are on the Theses page. They describe our research and are not a recommendation for anyone in particular; holdings differ by client and by investment policy, and all investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
This material is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All investing involves risk, including loss of principal.